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INSIGHTS

Commentary - Third Quarter 2023

The US economy experienced a strong rebound in the third quarter, with real gross domestic product growing at an annual rate of 4.9%. This robust performance suggests the US economy is on a solid footing, even if temporarily, despite ongoing concerns about inflation and restrictive interest rates.

Inflation remains a focal point in the US, and in most parts of the world, with consumer spending being the main driver of this continued growth. However, cracks are emerging in larger swaths of economic data.

Quarterly Recap
The global economy continued to face a number of uncertainties including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These factors were headwinds to economic activity, while strong labor markets and robust corporate profits were positive. Inflation readings, which have recently reached levels not seen in 40 years, remain elevated but are down substantially from their highs. The Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates as needed in an effort to bring inflation back toward the long run target of 2%.

The focus remained firmly on the Federal Reserve ("Fed") and the trajectory of interest rates during the quarter. The first two months of the quarter were relatively benign as most of Wall Street took their final vacations to close out the summer.

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