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September 22, 2023INSIGHTS
Commentary - Second Quarter 2023
After hitting the midpoint of 2023, we take a more pointed look at the horizon to see what is forming up ahead. Despite recent strength, we see several headwinds pressuring consumer and business spending which could be pointing to a decline in economic activity.
Quarterly Recap
The global economy continued to face a number of uncertainties including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These factors were headwinds to economic activity, while strong labor markets and robust corporate profits were positive. Inflation readings, which have recently reached levels not seen in 40 years, remain elevated but are down substantially from their highs. The Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates as needed in an effort to bring inflation back toward the long run target of 2%.
In the U.S., the unemployment rate is currently at a 50-year low with corresponding wages rising at a healthy pace. Consumer spending, accounting for approximately 70% of economic activity, remained relatively strong. With an ongoing healthy demand for goods and services, and the leveling off of commodity prices, corporate profits have been supported by strong economic growth and robust spending by consumers.
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